Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
